ClubGrowth Membership model review Membership Model Review · USD 149
Baseline Padel: not a churn problem, a plan design problem
Six courts, 940 members, and two plans that give members no reason to stay and no way to spend more.
You asked how to reduce churn. Churn at 31 percent is a symptom and the cause is sitting in your plan table: two memberships separated by USD 18 and by almost nothing a member can feel. People do not leave because they stopped liking padel. They leave because nothing they bought was ever tied to whether they played.
Retention campaigns aimed at a broken plan structure waste money. Rebuild the ladder into three plans with a real gap and a real reason to climb, tie the middle one to booked hours, and the churn number moves without a single retention email.
Economics
Where the money comes from today
Membership fees are 54 percent of revenue and 100 percent of your attention. Court hire, coaching and the bar are 46 percent of revenue, and none of them are connected to a membership plan in any way.
| Revenue line | Monthly | Share | Connected to membership? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Membership fees | USD 41,200 | 54% | Yes |
| Court hire, members | USD 12,900 | 17% | No. Same rate as non-members |
| Court hire, non-members | USD 8,400 | 11% | n/a |
| Coaching and academy | USD 9,100 | 12% | No |
| Bar and retail | USD 4,700 | 6% | No |
| Total | USD 76,300 | 100% |
Your members pay the same court rate as a stranger who walked in off the street. That is the single most consequential line in this report.
Plans
The ladder that is not a ladder
| Plan | Price | Members | What you get above the plan below | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casual | USD 29 / mo | 612 | Booking window 7 days, 5 percent off coaching | Underpriced entry |
| Full | USD 47 / mo | 294 | Booking window 14 days, 10 percent off coaching, a guest pass | No reason to upgrade |
| Academy, juniors | USD 62 / mo | 34 | Coached sessions included | Works. Leave alone |
One week of booking window, five percentage points of coaching discount and a guest pass, for USD 18 a month. Two hundred and ninety four people bought it anyway, which tells you the appetite is there and the offer is not.
Behaviour
Where members actually go
Attendance over twelve months, by member, against the month they cancelled. The pattern is consistent enough to act on and it gives you a warning signal you are not currently using.
| Signal | Observed | Lead time before cancellation | Currently acted on? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attendance drops below 2 sessions a month | Present in 81 percent of cancellations | 9 to 11 weeks | No |
| Member stops booking with the same partner | Present in 64 percent | 12 weeks | No |
| Member never joined a league or ladder | True of 77 percent of churners | From day one | No |
| Member had a coached session in the last 90 days | True of only 12 percent of churners | Protective | No |
You have eleven weeks of warning before most cancellations and nobody is looking at it. A weekly list of members below two sessions is a free retention programme that costs one query.
Design
Three plans, with a reason to climb
Same price points at the bottom and top, a real middle, and included court hours instead of discounts. Included hours are the change that matters: they convert a payment into a commitment, and a commitment into an attendance.
Court · USD 29 / mo
Booking window 7 days. No included hours. This is the plan people leave, and that is now acceptable because it is designed as a trial rather than as a destination.
Play · USD 59 / mo
Four included off-peak court hours a month, 14 day booking, automatic entry to the seasonal ladder. The included hours cost you almost nothing at 36 percent off-peak vacancy and they give the member a reason to turn up.
Club · USD 99 / mo
Eight included hours, two of them peak, one coached session a month, guest pass, and a named place in a fixed weekly slot. Priced for the 180 or so members who already spend this much across fees and hire.
| Today | Modelled | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Membership revenue | USD 41,200 | USD 55,900 | +USD 14,700 |
| Member court hire | USD 12,900 | USD 6,200 | -USD 6,700 |
| Off-peak utilisation | 36% | 58% | +22 points |
| Net monthly | +USD 8,000 |
Court hire falls because included hours replace paid ones. That is the trade, and it is worth making because an included hour fills a court that was empty and buys an attendance that predicts a renewal.
Risk
What goes wrong, and when
| Risk | Likelihood | Handling |
|---|---|---|
| Casual members see USD 29 to USD 59 as a doubling and leave | High | They are not being moved. USD 29 stays available. Say that first, loudly, in the announcement |
| Included off-peak hours get used at peak by argument | High | Define off-peak on the plan page, in the booking system, before launch. Not in an email |
| Peak utilisation rises above capacity | Medium | Only two included peak hours, and only on Club. Cap Club at 180 members in year one |
| Coaches lose discount-driven bookings | Medium | The included coached session on Club is paid to the coach at full rate. Show them the model before launch |
Plan
Ninety days
- Week 1
Build the below-two-sessions list
One query against the booking system, run every Monday. Nothing else in this report costs less or returns faster. Call, do not email.
- Week 2
Launch a partner board and a ladder
Before any pricing change. It addresses the largest single churn driver, it costs a whiteboard and a spreadsheet, and it makes the Play plan meaningful when it arrives.
- Week 4
Define off-peak, in the system
The boring step that decides whether the new plans are workable. Off-peak is Monday to Friday before 16:00 and after 21:00, and Sunday after 18:00. Put it in the booking rules, not the small print.
- Week 6
Open Play and Club to new joiners only
Existing members see nothing. You are testing take-up and the off-peak load for six weeks with no migration risk at all.
- Week 12
Open the upgrade to existing members
Upgrade only, never a forced move. Casual stays at USD 29 for anybody who wants it. The 294 on the old Full plan are the first conversation, individually, because they are already paying for a plan that no longer exists.
- Weekly count of members below two sessions
- Ladder participation as a share of members
- Off-peak utilisation, weekly
- Plan mix on new joiners
- Upgrade rate from Court to Play
- Churn by plan, monthly rather than annually